Evaluating Climate Change Scenarios across the Mekong River Basin using a High Resolution Integrated Hydrologic Model
Abstract
Human interventions, from dam construction to expansion of croplands and irrigation, across the Mekong River Basin have been associated with adverse effects such as reduction of streamflow, altered ecosystem health, and extension of wet and dry seasons. This has the potential to threaten economic growth and food security of indigenous people who mostly make ends meet via rice production. Rice and fisheries production are sensitive to altered climate and hydrology, thus it is important to quantify the influence of changes in climate and land use alternations (including dams) on these systems. There have been numerous studies investigating hydroclimatic cycles over the Mekong River Basin, but most models used to date oversimplify surface and subsurface hydrologic process, which reduces their ability to forecast the effects of projected climate changes. This study aims to develop a high spatial resolution (~500m) model using the Landscape Hydrology Model (LHM), which simulates the full energy and water balances with minimal calibration to predict hourly hydrologic fluxes. LHM has successfully modeled streamflow and groundwater levels across multiple basins across the United States. Here, we investigate the likely effects of potential climate change scenarios for the Mekong River Basin to improve our understanding of the hydrology for the Mekong River Basin. We downscale both CMIP5 and the new CMIP6 scenarios describing a range of emissions scenarios, and evaluate their effects on groundwater levels and streamflows. We also discuss the challenges of applying complex integrated models in data-poor regions, and share lessons learned from different input and driving datasets.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.H11I1589M
- Keywords:
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- 1632 Land cover change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1847 Modeling;
- HYDROLOGY;
- 1879 Watershed;
- HYDROLOGY