Hydroclimate variability and change in HMA

Liquid water originating over High Mountain Asia (HMA) from snow, glacier ice, and rainfall feeds regional rivers and reservoirs, providing water to approximately 2 billion people downstream. Using an ensemble of 50 km global climate model simulations, we produce probabilistic estimates of future hydroclimate over HMA. Combining present climate simulations with observations, we estimate present climate variability of the water budget. Using an ensemble of projections of future climate to 2100, we explore when detectable changes in individual hydrologic components (e.g. total water storage, precipitation, runoff) will emerge over the 21st century.