Application of subseasonal climate forecasts for improving food insecurity early warning in West Africa
Abstract
West Africa is extremely vulnerable to climate-related shocks due to high levels of chronic poverty, accelerated population growth, and climate variability and change. Climate-informed decision-making, therefore, is essential to mitigating losses and supporting sustainable resilience in this region. The climate and impacts outlooks in the region is provided by forums such as the PRÉvisions climatiques Saisonnières en Afrique Soudano-Sahélienne (PRESASS) and Prévisions Climatiques Saisonnières pour les pays du Golfe de Guinée ( PRESAGG ). Thus far the primary focus of these forums has been on seasonal scale climate forecasts (statistical, dynamical or hybrid). However, recent advances in subseasonal forecasts and their public access provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve the existing climate services in the region to better support climate-informed decision making. Here we report on an ongoing work that aims to evaluate and apply subseasonal climate forecasts from NMME SubX project to support food insecurity related decision making in West Africa. We do so by examining the potential of using near-real time observations and SubX forecasts to provide effective early indication of (1) the timing of start-of-season (SOS) which, in some cases, tends to influence the end-of-season (EOS) crop yield outcomes (ii) the food prices, as it is shown that delays in SOS can lead to volatile food prices and (iii) the EOS crop yield outcomes using a widely used crop water balance model (the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index). Combinations of observations and subseasonal forecasts are evaluated separately for the northern and southern Sahelian region based on their distinct main cropping seasons. The reference datasets include CHIRPS precipitation data, sub-national crop yield statistics and market prices made available through Famine Early Warning System Network Team (FEWS NET) Data Center. This work is done in collaboration with FEWS NET to ensure application of forecasting products for operational food insecurity early warning.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2019
- Bibcode:
- 2019AGUFM.A31F..05S
- Keywords:
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- 3337 Global climate models;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES;
- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGE;
- 4315 Monitoring;
- forecasting;
- prediction;
- NATURAL HAZARDS;
- 4343 Preparedness and planning;
- NATURAL HAZARDS