Using Interplanetary Scintillation Data to Improve Ensemble Modeling of Coronal Mass Ejections
Abstract
Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can cause widespread anomalies for satellites from geosynchronous to low-Earth orbit, most significant geomagnetic storms and produce effects such as geomagnetically induced currents. At the NASA/GSFC Community Coordinated Modeling Center we have been using ensemble modeling of CMEs since 2012. In this presentation we show that interplanetary scintillation (IPS) observations from the Ooty Radio Telescope facility in India can dramatically improve the ensemble modeling results by tracking CME propagation say one day after it's start from the Sun. By comparing modeling results with the observations at this stage we can get rid of a priori wrong ensemble members, prune the ensemble accordingly and run the next iteration of modeling - some sort of data assimilation. This can be a game-changing improvement of the current state of the art in CME forecasting.
- Publication:
-
Solar Heliospheric and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE 2018)
- Pub Date:
- July 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018shin.confE.120T