Substorm Prediction Using The WINDMI Model
Abstract
The WINDMI model is an 8 dimensional physics based state space model of the magnetosphere. The input to the model is the solar wind velocity Vx and the IMF Bz measured by the ACE satellite. The output of the model is the westward auroral electrojet that is proportional to the AL index. In this work we investigate if the model can be used effectively to predict the occurrence of substorms. The model parameters are optimized to give a statistical likelihood of substorm events. The WINDMI model is constrained to trigger the substorms and establish the magnetospheric conditions that influence substorm dynamics. The timing of onset for each event, the model parameters and the model intermediate state space variables are examined and analyzed for substorms that occurred between 2006 and 2016, as determined from the SuperMAG substorm event list. We classify the events according to three particularly important and distinct parameters of the model, the critical geotail current Ic when a substorm is triggered, the plasma sheet capacitance, and the plasma sheet conductivity, both of which determine the strength, character and duration of geomagnetic activity. The statistical distribution of the model parameters over different types of substorms are presented.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMSM51E2791S
- Keywords:
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- 2704 Auroral phenomena;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICSDE: 2736 Magnetosphere/ionosphere interactions;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICSDE: 2740 Magnetospheric configuration and dynamics;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICSDE: 2794 Instruments and techniques;
- MAGNETOSPHERIC PHYSICS