Enough Already: Committed CO2 Emissions from Developed Fossil Fuel Reserves and the Case for a Managed Decline of Production
Abstract
Previous analyses indicate that a significant portion of proven, economically viable fossil fuel reserves must stay in the ground in order to limit warming below 2°C (e.g., Meinshausen et al. 2009; Matthews 2014). Our research focuses on a more defined category of reserves: the oil, gas, and coal in already-producing or under-construction fields and mines. These reserves are particularly significant to the Paris Agreement goals because of the problem of lock-in. Once a project has been developed, economic, political, and legal incentives push for continued production and present barriers to early phase-out (Unruh 2000, 2002; Erickson et al. 2015; Seto et al. 2016). We estimate developed reserves using energy industry databases and analysis by the International Energy Agency. We compare the potential cumulative CO2 emissions of burning those reserves with IPCC carbon budgets consistent with the range of the Paris goals: to keep warming well below 2°C and to aim to limit it to 1.5°C. Our initial findings indicate that - taking a precautionary approach to potential negative emissions technologies - burning developed reserves of oil, gas, and coal would fully exhaust and exceed the carbon budget aligned with a 2°C limit. Developed reserves of oil and gas alone would take the world beyond 1.5°C. The policy implications are that developing new fields or mines will either push the world further beyond safe climate limits, or require the early closure of a significant additional portion of existing assets. This suggests that government action to stop new fossil fuel projects - for example, by ceasing new licenses - and to manage the decline of fossil fuel production will likely be necessary to achieve the Paris goals.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMPA41A..01E
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6314 Demand estimation;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6615 Legislation and regulations;
- PUBLIC ISSUESDE: 6620 Science policy;
- PUBLIC ISSUES;
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6314 Demand estimation;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6615 Legislation and regulations;
- PUBLIC ISSUESDE: 6620 Science policy;
- PUBLIC ISSUES;
- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6314 Demand estimation;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6615 Legislation and regulations;
- PUBLIC ISSUESDE: 6620 Science policy;
- PUBLIC ISSUES