Ensemble simulations of waves, circulation, and morphologic change during Hurricane Ike

Efficient disaster response depends on accurate prediction of the peak, onset, and duration of inundation caused by tropical cyclones. In this study, the coupled wave-circulation-morphology model Delft3D is used to simulate inundation in the Galveston Bay area before, during, and after Hurricane Ike made landfall there in 2008. Ensembles of variables are examined to determine which values provide the best approximations of the morphological change and inundation seen during the event. Previous research by the authors found that the model is highly sensitive to chosen bottom friction parameterization in the Delft3D FLOW and WAVE models; the results presented here further examine sensitivity with a larger matrix of input parameter ensembles, and a continued focus on prediction of morphology with Delft3D.