Measuring the impact of high-tide floods on local economic activity
Abstract
The frequency of high-tide flooding in the United States has doubled in the past 30 years and is projected to accelerate with sea level rise. However, little is known about the social and economic consequences of these events. Empirical analysis of the disruption caused by high-tide floods, also called nuisance or sunny-day floods, is challenging because these floods typically last for just a few hours at a time and rarely leave lasting infrastructure damage. Here, we estimate the effects of high-tide flooding on local economic activity in Annapolis, Maryland, using a novel econometric approach that captures these short-lived impacts. We use social media, photographic and video evidence, and tide gauge data to measure the incidence of flooding. These measurements are combined with high-frequency data on visits to the flood-affected area. We find that high-tide flooding already reduces visits to the historic downtown district by 2%. There is no evidence that visits are recovered at other times or in other places. With three and 12 inches of additional sea level rise, high-tide floods would reduce visits by 4% and 24%, respectively. A more comprehensive understanding of the impacts of high-tide flooding, including on health and transportation, can help to guide efficient responses—from local adaptations to global mitigation of climate change.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMNH41A..03H
- Keywords:
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- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 4313 Extreme events;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4328 Risk;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4534 Hydrodynamic modeling;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL