Long-Term Hazard Evolution of Rainfall-Induced Landslides under Climate Change
Abstract
Rainfall-induced landslides represent a worldwide ubiquitous natural hazard causing tremendous damages and fatalities each year. In addition to the "inherent" challenges of landslide prediction, climate change may also play an important role in shaping long-term (e.g., yearly scale) hazard evolution of regional landslides. Based on the integration of hillslope hydrology and slope stability analysis (modified after Lehmann et al., 2017), in tandem with an evapotranspiration model, we adopted a deterministic approach to quantify the dynamic evolution of rainfall-induced landslide hazard at the regional scale. We further employed projected climate variables (e.g., precipitation and temperature) by a perturbation downscaling scheme as input for the landslide modeling framework, to assess the effects of climate change on landslide hazard evolution. Results highlight the importance of antecedent soil moisture on landslide triggering, in conjunction with rainfall intensity and duration. Results also indicate that climate change exerts highly nonlinear effects on future landslide activity, depending on the tradeoff between precipitation and evapotranspiration. The proposed approach provides a more comprehensive framework for the assessment of the long-term hazard dynamics of rainfall-induced landslides.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMNH21B0823F
- Keywords:
-
- 1810 Debris flow and landslides;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 4302 Geological;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4303 Hydrological;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4315 Monitoring;
- forecasting;
- prediction;
- NATURAL HAZARDS