Near Real-Time Forecasting Large Aftershocks of the 2008 MW 7.9 Wenchuan, China, Earthquake
Abstract
The 2008 MW 7.9 Wenchuan, China, earthquake and most of triggered aftershocks occurred around the Longmenshan fault. Therefore, we develop a space-time-magnitude hazard model for the aftershocks by combining the Reasenberg-Jones (RJ) model for time-magnitude hazard and an empirical spatial distribution of earthquakes. This model is denoted by GRJ since it can be regarded as a generalization of the RJ model by incorporating with spatial hazard information. In general, the GRJ model gives more quickly the spatial-temporal aftershock hazard than does the grids-based RJ hazard evaluation. Results of an analysis of M≧4.0 Wenchuan aftershocks show that, when forecasting in one day after the main shock, the RJ model gives reasonably the occurrence rate or number of future M≧5.0 aftershocks. Moreover, the criteria based on the receiver operating characteristic curve indicate that the GRJ model depicts efficiently the possible rupture area of forthcoming M≧5.0 aftershocks.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMNH13D0720C
- Keywords:
-
- 2427 Ionosphere/atmosphere interactions;
- IONOSPHEREDE: 4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4337 Remote sensing and disasters;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 7223 Earthquake interaction;
- forecasting;
- and prediction;
- SEISMOLOGY