A Next-Generation of U.S. Volcanic Hazard Assessments
Abstract
The USGS has published volcanic hazard assessments (VHAs) since the late 1960's. Most of these are a combination of map plus written report and are focused on single volcanoes. In addition, several regional assessments have been published, such as for the Island of Hawaíi, and for the States of Washington, Oregon and California. USGS VHAs are used by local and State governments to inform their growth management and emergency response plans. Many of these reports are now decades old, and due to advances in scientific understanding and technological capability, need to be updated. Newer VHAs will incorporate more modern understanding of volcanic processes and their hazards, modeling outputs that help convey spatial and temporal hazards, plus estimates of hazard probabilities, and where appropriate, assessment of vulnerabilities.
The USGS is adopting a new paradigm for a next-generation of VHAs. The hazard assessment will transform from a single one-off document to a portfolio of geospatially indexed products that will be maintained as a digital library. While traditional published hazard assessment reports will be retained in the product line and periodically updated, the information and analyses on which the assessments are based, as well as products designed for specific audiences, will be included in the digital library. Such products will be considered as an integral part of next-generation VHAs. Products are being designed and updated with stakeholder input, and this focus on needs assessment will continue into the future. Hazard assessments have traditionally been viewed as long-term evaluations, i.e., considering the potential hazards over the coming decades or centuries. A significant change in the paradigm is to reframe the hazard assessment to consider not only the long-term, but also to provide a framework for short-term use during volcanic crises. This will be accomplished through evaluation and modeling of particular scenarios and through compilation of relevant data and pre-crisis design and testing of probabilistic event-trees.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMNH12A..02P
- Keywords:
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- 4327 Resilience;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4343 Preparedness and planning;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4352 Interaction between science and disaster management authorities;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks;
- VOLCANOLOGY