Labor loss from extreme temperatures in US from historical and future climate changes
Abstract
Weather can play a very important role in how effectively people can work in high-risk sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting; construction; mining; transportation; utilities, and manufacturing. For this study, we apply the dose-response functions for the relationship between extreme temperature and labor productivity in those sectors developed by Graff Zivin and Neidell (2014) to investigate the impact of historical and future extreme temperature on labor in high-risk sectors. We then quantify the economic losses by multiplying the annual employment number and average weekly wages reported in those high-risk sectors by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. For the historical period, we use the daily maximum temperature from NOAA Climate Prediction Center Global Daily Temperature database at 0.5×0.5º from 1980 to 2016. The labor loss from extreme temperature in 2016 could cause an estimated 17 billion annually in lost wages, much larger than values found for the 1980s. The state with the highest labor loss from heat is Texas (TX, 4.1 billion, 24% of the national loss), following by California (CA, 2.6 billion, 15%), and Arizona (AZ, 1.7 billion, 10%). However, the state with the highest ratio of the total labor loss over the state GDP is AZ (0.54%), followed by TX (0.26%), and Mississippi (0.17%). In CA, the ratio is 0.10%. For the future projections, we study climate changes in the 2030s, 2050s and 2100s for both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, by dynamically downscaling simulations with the global climate model CESM to the regional scale at 36×36 km with a regional climate model (WRF). We report how the cost of labor losses rises differently over time in various regions of the US, and how this depends upon the climate scenario.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGH23C1112Z
- Keywords:
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- 0230 Impacts of climate change: human health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 1626 Global climate models;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6309 Decision making under uncertainty;
- POLICY SCIENCES