Just open a window: Understanding the combined effects of heat and smoke on a mountain community in the western United States, Missoula, Montana
Abstract
How do we conceptualize vulnerability or resiliency to a natural hazard when it has not historically been understood as such? This study focuses on Missoula, located in mountains of western Montana, which has steadily grown its population by 1-2 % per year to now reach close to 75,000. Similarly changing is the temperate quality of its winters and summers. Projections from the 2017 Montana Climate Assessment estimate the state will experience a 2-5°F increase in mean annual air temperature over the next two decades, prompting city and county officials to plan for scenarios not formerly in their consideration. Of further concern is the increasing frequency of extensive summer wildfires contributing to poor air quality which prevents the low cost venting of homes during cooler evenings. This study was facilitated by the American Geophysical Union's Thriving Earth Exchange (TEX) collaboration between local (City of Missoula, Climate Smart Missoula), state (University of Montana), and national (TEX, University of Notre Dame) stakeholders seeking to create a climate change plan.
This study applied areal interpolation to U.S. Census American Community Survey block group data to scale those to the block level, and dasymetric mapping to account for the unpopulated public lands which occupy substantial portions of many blocks. Socioeconomic variable layers (age, income, education, employment, living alone, multi-unit housing, mobile housing, insurance status, and disability) were combined in a Multi-Criteria Analysis to map sensitivity and exposure variables of land surface temperature and land-cover data to predict the populations most vulnerable to the UHI and smoke risks. The resulting maps will be utilized by Missoula city and county planners to allocate resources for mitigation, such as recommendations for the selection of building materials in new construction, installation of cooling shelters, and enhancement of urban forest. This study was designed to develop a methodology that could be readily replicated by other small communities to implement and update as needed.- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGH23B1092T
- Keywords:
-
- 0493 Urban systems;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 1942 Machine learning;
- INFORMATICSDE: 4329 Sustainable development;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 6334 Regional planning;
- POLICY SCIENCES