Estimating the impact of climate change on directly-transmitted infections
Abstract
Understanding how climate change will alter the burden of infectious diseases has clear public health implications. Despite valuable advances in predicting the effect of climate change on vector-borne diseases, the effect on directly-transmitted infections remains understudied. Here we develop a novel methodology to disentangle the climate drivers of these types of infections from other seasonal drivers. The method allows us to drive a mechanistic model, forced with CMIP5 projections, to look at the dynamic response of directly-transmitted infections to climate change. We apply the method to two cases: varicella in Mexico and RSV in the USA. We find that changing temperatures and humidity shift the timing of cases within the year, as well as increasing incidence.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGH14A..01B
- Keywords:
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- 0230 Impacts of climate change: human health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0232 Impacts of climate change: ecosystem health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0240 Public health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0245 Vector born diseases;
- GEOHEALTH