Effects of anthropogenic emission phase-out on public health and climate
Abstract
Anthropogenic greenhouse gases and fine particulates are associated with climate change, human health risks and excess mortality. We used a global model to estimate both the climate and public health outcomes from a phase-out of fossil fuels by 2050. We show that it can avoid 1.58 (1.39-1.70) million excess deaths annually attributable to ambient air pollution. This could be 2.71 (2.36-2.95) million annually by additionally controlling non-fossil anthropogenic sources. The phase-out increases simulated rainfall by 10-70% over densely populated regions in India and 10-30% over northern China, and by 10-40% over Central America, West Africa and the drought prone Sahel, supporting water and food security. Since aerosols mask global warming, eliminating fossil fuel generated particles liberates 0.48(±0.03)°C and all anthropogenic particles 0.76(±0.04)°C warming, reaching around 2°C over North America and Northeast Asia. This adds to the long-term committed warming from CO2 emissions. The steep temperature increase from removing aerosols can be moderated to about 0.36°(±0.06)°C by the simultaneous reduction of ozone and methane. In order to save millions of lives and restore aerosol-perturbed rainfall patterns, whilst limiting global warming to 2°C, a rapid phase-out of fossil fuel related and other anthropogenic emissions is needed.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGH12A..01L
- Keywords:
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- 0230 Impacts of climate change: human health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0231 Impacts of climate change: agricultural health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0232 Impacts of climate change: ecosystem health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0240 Public health;
- GEOHEALTH;
- 0230 Impacts of climate change: human health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0231 Impacts of climate change: agricultural health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0232 Impacts of climate change: ecosystem health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 0240 Public health;
- GEOHEALTH