Modeling Energy-Water Dynamics and Regional Interactions in a Multi-Model Framework

Local and regional variability in water resource availability can have cascading effects on local and regional power system dynamics. Adequately capturing these interactions requires a multi-sector modeling framework that retains fidelity to appropriate spatial and temporal scales of each sector. We have developed a flexible and integrated modeling framework that captures the dynamic multi-scale interactions among energy and water sectors subject to weather/climate, socioeconomic, and policy stress scenarios. We are using this framework to study the vulnerability and resilience of coupled energy and water systems from local to continental scales under a variety of scenarios. In particular, we are exploring how different model configurations, levels of complexity, multi-model coupling strategies, and spatiotemporal resolutions influence simulation fidelity and the propagation of uncertainties across a range of sectors, scales, and scenarios. As a case study, we consider coupled energy and water system models in the western United States and evaluate the sensitivity local and regional power system dynamics under a wide range of water availability, fuel price, and water policy scenarios. We utilize multiple energy system and water resource models that operate at different spatial and temporal resolutions. We find that localized water impacts can have broad regional power system impacts, the magnitude of power system price and generation changes resulting from water availability can be the same as for fuel price volatility, and that the interconnectedness and redundancy of the western power grid allows for resilience and adaptability to water-related stresses.