Human Migration as a Response to Extreme Temperature and Rainfall: Historical Evidence from Bangladesh
Abstract
Migration has long been used by households as a strategy to access economic opportunity and to cope with environmental stress. As the global climate changes in the 21st century, patterns of human migration are also likely to shift. When and why climate shocks influence migration, and how climate interacts with other socioeconomic forces, is a matter of intense interest for researchers and policy makers. Answers to these questions will provide important insights for our ability to predict and manage urban growth, economic development, and international conflict. In this paper we use a new primary data set containing the migration histories of 1700 households in the highly vulnerable region of southwestern Bangladesh. We use discrete time event history analysis to examine the historical relationship between exposure to extreme temperature and rainfall events (e.g., warm spells, dry spells, wet spells, and intense precipitation) and the likelihood of making an internal or international migrant trip. We also investigate how extreme weather interacts with livelihoods and existing social networks to shape processes of migration. Findings reveal that both warm and dry spells are positively associated with the likelihood of making a domestic migrant trip. However, the effect of dry spells exists only for those with social ties to other migrants and is more pronounced among those engaged in agriculture. In contrast, warm spells and wet spells are negatively associated with the likelihood of making an international migrant trip, especially for those with social ties. These results shed light onto how population dynamics might evolve in a changing climate, and provide insights into the factors that shape resilience and vulnerability among small-scale agriculturalists.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC51J0912C
- Keywords:
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- 0240 Public health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1803 Anthropogenic effects;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 4329 Sustainable development;
- NATURAL HAZARDS