Drought and Food-Energy-Water-Security Nexus: A Bayesian framework assessment of food insecurity in Middle East
Abstract
Natural disasters contribute as crucial sources of food insecurity and vulnerability in the Middle East. This paper investigates the impact of drought on the Food-Energy-Water-Security (FEWS) nexus in the Middle East region. Meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts are analyzed using three drought indices: the Standardized Precipitation Index, Standardized Soil Moisture Index, and Standardized Runoff Index at multiple timescales over the region for about seven decades for the period of 1948-2017. The study analyzes food insecurity in the Middle East through the exploration of drought, water availability, energy, and other socio-economic factors in the region. A Bayesian approach is conducted to link all the factors that best predict crop production in the Middle East during the period of 1961-2009 pooled from 16 countries in the region. Results reveal that the intensity of hydrological droughts are the most aggravated over the region in all cases. Moreover, results indicate that agricultural droughts, hydrological drought, and population growth have significant impact on crop production in the Middle East region.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC51I0896H
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGE