Air Pollution and Health Co-Benefits of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change
Abstract
Under the Paris Agreement on climate change, member countries submit Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) outlining plans to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs). Such efforts to mitigate GHGs will reduce consumption of fossil fuels and can achieve significant reductions in other air pollutants that impact human health, such as ozone and particulate matter smaller than 2.5 μm (PM2.5). Air pollution reductions and improved health outcomes resulting from policies that target GHG mitigation are considered co-benefits. In this study, we use an interdisciplinary set of modeling tools to estimate the air pollution and health co-benefits of the Paris Agreement NDCs. We project 2015 emissions (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, organic carbon, black carbon, ammonia, and non-methane volatile organic compounds) from the Community Emissions Data System (CEDS) to future years using the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). GCAM is an integrated assessment model that simulates economic activity, energy, land use, and emissions by world region and sector. We use results from GCAM scenarios that simulate GHG reduction pathways based on the submitted Paris Agreement NDCs. The NDCs specify national GHG reductions in 2025 or 2030. We therefore analyze the air pollutant and health co-benefits of the NDCs in 2030, relative to a reference scenario, and in scenarios that extend mitigation to 2100. We use projected precursor emissions and present-day MERRA2 meteorology as input to CAM-Chem, the atmospheric chemistry component of the Community Earth System Model, which simulates global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations in 2030, 2050, and 2100 under the policy scenarios. Here we present our projected emissions results as well as ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from preliminary CAM-Chem simulations. We also discuss our methodology for calculating health impacts using the CAM-Chem simulation results.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC43F1591M
- Keywords:
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- 0230 Impacts of climate change: human health;
- GEOHEALTHDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 6304 Benefit-cost analysis;
- POLICY SCIENCESDE: 6334 Regional planning;
- POLICY SCIENCES