Clear Air Turbulence over the North Pacific in a 2-degree Warming Climate - Ensemble Projections by a 60-km Atmospheric General Circulation Model
Abstract
Future changes in extreme clear air turbulence (CAT) events and its seasonality over the North Pacific are estimated based on the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF), which includes over 3000 years of ensemble projections for a 2-degree warming climate relative to the pre-industrial level. The climatological CAT frequency broadly decreases in the mid-latitude central to western North Pacific along with the anticyclonic side of its present-day envelope. Meanwhile, large relative increases are found outside the envelope, implying an increasing risk for aviation incidents. Uncertainty of future CAT changes due to sea surface temperature change patterns from six selected CMIP5 (Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase-5) climate models is addressed for the first time. It maximizes in winter and spring over the central North Pacific associated with uncertainty in future changes of jet stream and activity of upper-level synoptic-scale disturbance. Uncertainty due to natural variability will also be discussed.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC33J1483W
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE