Projection of hydroclimate extreme indices over the Indochina Region under climate change using large ensemble based on a single-model configuration
Abstract
Results from the multiple-realization, single-model ensemble named "Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change" (d4PDF), were used to generate hydroclimate indices for the present and future climate over the Indochina Region. The model performed reasonably well in capturing the reference precipitation characteristics for the present climate (1951-2010), especially with the seasonal pattern, e.g., JJA, SON, and intensity-based indice such as SDII, R95P, Rx1D, and Rx3D. Under the +4K future simulation for 2051-2110 which comprised of six prescribed SST scenario, a substantial and statistically significant increase of precipitation frequency (R10, R20) and intensity (SDII, Rx1D, Rx3D) were projected over Indochinese Peninsula with a high degree of consistency. However, there were greater uncertainties of the mean value in early dry-season precipitation (DJF) and late monsoon (SON) at some river catchments such as Chao Phraya, Red, the middle part of Mekong, lower Irrawaddy and the Salween due to signs of projections. Comparison of the basin-wide empirical probability distributions of precipitation indexes pointed to a robust increase and more frequent occurrence of heavy precipitation regarding intensity, e.g., Rx1D, Rx3D, and SDII. The relationship between d4PDF precipitation and total runoff generation outputs from its land surface component was investigated. The results show a high degree of temporal correspondent across the region at the present climate in several seasonal and intensity indices , with the only exception in the dry period (DJF and MAM). Finally, the future projections of runoff elasticities and the implications of the overall findings for floods and droughts were discussed.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC33J1479H
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1622 Earth system modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE