The Direct Cost of Terrestrial Permafrost Degradation to the Arctic Countries by mid-21 Century
Abstract
Permafrost plays an important role in functioning of natural ecosystems and is critical for construction in maintenance of the infrastructure in the Arctic regions. Observations show that following rapidly changing climatic conditions, the near surface permafrost temperature is increasing across the circumpolar Arctic. The active layer, the layer of soil just above the permafrost, which is subjected to seasonal freezing and thawing, is also increasing. These rapid climate-induced changes in thermal and physical properties of terrestrial permafrost may result in additional direct costs associated with maintaining the present level of infrastructure. These costs are expected to adversely affect local, regional and state budgets of the Arctic countries. This study uses publicly available inventories of six major types of infrastructure to estimate potential costs of replacing permafrost infrastructure at risk of damaged due to climatic changes projected by the mid-21 century over the circumpolar Arctic. Outputs form six CMIP5 models were used as forcing to permafrost-geotechnical GIS-based model to estimate climate-induced changes in permafrost properties between present decade (2005-2015) and mid-21 century (2050-2059) under RCP8.5 scenario. The lifecycle replacement and stressor-response models were used to assess potential damages associated with specific environmental stressors, such as increase in precipitation, decrease of foundation bearing capacity, and ground subsidence as well as to estimate costs associated with these damages. According to our estimates the projected combined cost to the Arctic economy was found to be USD 40 bil, but there is substantial regional variability of types of infrastructure affected as well as the ability of regional budgets to absorb these costs.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC33E1403S
- Keywords:
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- 1615 Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1637 Regional climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1655 Water cycles;
- GLOBAL CHANGE