Probabilistic 5-minute Solar Farm Power Forecasts for the SUMMER-GO Project
Abstract
Rapidly increasing amounts of solar power feeding into the electric grid are requiring improvements in how this resource is managed, including the unit scheduling process run by grid managers. Meanwhile, numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts have been moving in the direction of increasing ensemble sets of forecasts and finer spatial and temporal resolution, which can be used to generate probability distributions for forecast outcomes. Increasingly, electric grid managers are moving toward shorter scheduling and dispatch cycles for power generation units including solar farms, allowing faster response to rapid fluctuations and unexpected evolving events. We already make forecasts of hourly power and subhourly variability for solar farms. We will be providing forecast probability distributions for solar farm power averaged over 5-minute time intervals to a few hours and longer time averages for longer forecast lead times as part of a Department of Energy funded project, Solar Uncertainty Management and Mitigation for Exceptional Reliability in Grid Operations (SUMMER-GO). The forecasts will combine a diverse and large NWP ensemble collection to help with distribution tails and real-time, 5-minute, sub-kilometer satellite imagery. The goal of the project is to integrate these forecasts into the operations of the grid manager for most of Texas, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), utilizing decision support tools developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and to demonstrate the economic benefit from integrating these new probabilistic forecasts into the electric grid operations.
This presentation will report on our new developments for this project, possibly including expanding the ensemble set of NWP forecasts, combining forecasts having different spatial and temporal resolutions, combining the satellite imagery with the NWP-based forecast, and handling of rapid temporal variability in the probability distribution.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC31I1358J
- Keywords:
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- 0321 Cloud/radiation interaction;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTUREDE: 1605 Abrupt/rapid climate change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1640 Remote sensing;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1952 Modeling;
- INFORMATICS