Chesapeake Bay watershed: Analyzing interdependencies between climate change and social economic factors
Abstract
In recent years, the science community has gained access to an unprecedented amount of climate and historical data to generate future climate projections, including moderate and aggressive carbon emissions reduction scenarios, reference concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.0, respectively. However, due to the complexity and spatial scale of the climate data, and the heterogeneity of social, economic and institutional data, relevant 2nd - and 3rd -order climate impact information is often not readily available to infrastructure and large public system operators, such as coastal zone, floodplain, wastewater treatment, transportation, public health system managers. Yet such information is increasingly necessary for decision making in their increasingly functionally interdependent operations. According to a recent study, over the 21st century in the Chesapeake Bay region, CO2 concentrations will increase by 50% to 160%; sea level rise will increase by 0.7 to 1.6 meters; water temperature will increase by 2° to 6° F. The Chesapeake Bay watershed is a region of particular interest. It is one of the largest and most productive estuaries in the world,with established up- and downstream institutional structures in place that influence environmental policy planning. The Washington D.C.-Baltimore metropolitan combined statistical area (MCSA) is the fourth largest in the United States. Continued strong population and economic growth, along with the presence of well-established urban, transportation, industrial, military and government infrastructures, make it an ideal focus for the study of regional climate impacts. In addition, the dynamics of changes to the region's land cover contributes to the rapid evolution of regional carbon dioxide emissions. Our study will focus on the utilization of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) data coupled with data on natural and human systems to assess climate change and its implications on a regional level so that local stakeholders and decision makers have the necessary tools to assess local and regional effects of climate change, and to take better-informed adaptation actions.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC31E1299Y
- Keywords:
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- 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1880 Water management;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 4321 Climate impact;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4323 Human impact;
- NATURAL HAZARDS