Structural changes in the configuration of the agro-food system of the Mediterranean Basin: implications for food security
Abstract
We undertake this study to better understand the evolution and conformation of the agro-food system of contrasted areas of the Mediterranean basin. We analyzed the levels and flows of nitrogen (N) between the core compartments of the system (crop, animal, human) from 1961 to 2013 following the Generic Representation of Agro-food Systems approach (GRAFS). Functional relationships between crop farming, livestock systems, and human nutrition are expressed in terms of N transfer. Total human demand of vegetal products has increased two-fold (1.6 TgN in 2013) in the entire region and three-fold for animal products (1.7 TgN in 2013). The largest share of the increase of vegetal demand was linked to the population growth while for animal products dietary changes contributed the most. Total crop and livestock production in the basin has increased more than two-fold in both cases (6.5 TgN and 1.8 TgN in 2013). The crop surface has hardly changed and the observed increases in production responded to yield improvements. The N surpluses have doubled (5.9 TgN in 2013). Despite the weighted averaged per area N surpluses are below critical values (80 kgN.ha-1.y-1) the vulnerability of the freshwater systems together to a bad managed intensive crop and livestock areas could exacerbate the problem of access to enough clean water. Regardless of the observed increase in the efficiency of the animal systems, their low efficiency estimated for the transformation of vegetal into animal protein entails that small increases in the production generated significant increases of the feed demand. The local production of vegetal products is enough to provide food for the people in all regions; however it is by far insufficient for feeding the increasing livestock.Local an imported animal feed is accounting for the largest part of the total protein use. Increases in crop and livestock production during the last 54 years have not been large enough to fulfil an increasing local demand associated with population rise and dietary changes. People of the Mediterranean basin are the more and more dependent on international trade and this situation could be worsening if climate change affects yields. Structural changes such as better crop-livestock integration and human dietary changes, could be crucial to assure food security in the coming decades.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMGC23H1308L
- Keywords:
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- 0402 Agricultural systems;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 0470 Nutrients and nutrient cycling;
- BIOGEOSCIENCESDE: 1615 Biogeochemical cycles;
- processes;
- and modeling;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE