Evaluation of Dynamically Downscaled Winds over the Beaufort Sea coast
Abstract
The northern coast of Alaska is experiencing significant climatic change initiating hazards from reduced sea ice and increased coastal erosion. This same region is home to significant offshore oil/gas activities and future development plans need to account for the changing climate. To better understand potential hazards that incorporate climate change, downscaled climate data are needed that can resolve the detail of the coastal zones while best capturing climate variability and trends. Reanalysis and Global Climate Model (GCM) data have been dynamically downscaled to 20km and hourly resolution for all of Alaska using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model over 1979-2100. The wind speed and direction from these data can be used to help drive wave and sediment models for regions of the Beaufort Sea coast. The output from these models can then be used to quantify the threat posed by coastal erosion and sediment transport on future oil development activities. The winds from the dynamically downscaled ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979-2015) and GCM future projections from RCP8.5 for NCAR CCSM4 and GFDL CM3 over 1970-2100 are analyzed in this study. Historical winds were compared with the Chukchi Beaufort High Resolution Reanalysis and point stations in key areas along the Beaufort Sea coast for the reanalysis period as an initial validation. Results show similar wind speeds in terms of monthly means and extremes over the Beaufort Sea. Additional analysis of wind extremes at the daily scale are planned and intercomparison/bias corrections of the future projections to the downscaled reanalysis will be explored.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFMEP23D2360B
- Keywords:
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- 1621 Cryospheric change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 4315 Monitoring;
- forecasting;
- prediction;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4217 Coastal processes;
- OCEANOGRAPHY: GENERAL