Projected future changes and uncertainties in extreme precipitation events in the northeastern U.S.
Abstract
The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events globally have shown important shifts due to climate change. However, climate change signals are mostly relevant to regional hydroclimatic conditions and atmospheric circulations, and thus, can be markedly different within and between regions. Understanding the trends of extreme precipitation events, therefore, is important to facilitate regional risk assessments, local infrastructure design and climate adaptation planning. To achieve these objectives, regional and general circulation models (GCMs) can be important tools in order to characterize future trends of extreme precipitation events and quantify their associated uncertainties. In this study, we use observational data and an ensemble of fourteen GCMs selected from the fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for two greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) to examine past and potential future changes in extreme precipitation events over the northeastern part of the United States. The fourteen GCMs selected for this task have demonstrated the ability to accurately capture regional climate features in the U.S. northeast. Selected GCM projections are regionally downscaled into finer resolution grids before they are used to analyze trends of extreme precipitation events for different time periods- current (years 1980-2020), near- term (years 2021-2060) and far-term (years 2060-2099) in the future. These trends are examined over a set of spatial and temporal scales across seasons to capture details on potential future impacts on flooding patterns and hydrology in the region. Overall, the results have shown an increasing trend in both the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events across spatiotemporal scales. Ensemble of change projections will highlight the model consensus as well as uncertainties to provide critical information for local policy and decision makers.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H43H2564S
- Keywords:
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- 1616 Climate variability;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1854 Precipitation;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1869 Stochastic hydrology;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment;
- NATURAL HAZARDS