Drought in a Changing Climate: Connecting the Dots Between Scientists and Stakeholders
Abstract
Persistent and recurring droughts threaten the long-term economic and environmental sustainability of tropical and semi-tropical regions around the world. Over the last decade, severe droughts in regions including central and northern South America, Syria, Spain, East Africa and Australia have led to water shortages and agricultural losses, affected local and regional economies, and even exacerbated pre-existing socio-economic issues and conflict in some regions.
As global population continues to grow and the impacts of human-induced climate change on natural variability become more pronounced, the importance of predicting near-term droughts and projecting changes in long-term drought risk becomes even more critical. However, unless this information can be translated into the planning frameworks typically used by water managers, farmers, producers, and other stakeholders, it may not contribute to building resilience to current and future hazards. Using the semi-arid south-central U.S. as case study, this presentation will discuss how analysis of large-scale dynamics can contribute to establishing an appropriate level of confidence in the ability of global climate models to simulate the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought conditions over a region. It will explore how climate projections can be translated into information that is relevant and directly accessible for city planners, farmers and producers, and water districts to incorporate into their planning framework; and it will discuss experiences of positive engagement with stakeholders who may initially doubt the value of this information and the reality or relevance of a changing climate.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H42C..07H
- Keywords:
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- 1812 Drought;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1817 Extreme events;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1834 Human impacts;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1843 Land/atmosphere interactions;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 4327 Resilience;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4328 Risk;
- NATURAL HAZARDSDE: 4928 Global climate models;
- PALEOCEANOGRAPHY