Real-time Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for a 2017 Mock Operations Test of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations for a Multi-Purpose Reservoir in Northern California
Abstract
Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates 15-day ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to conduct a mock operation test trial of the EFO alternative for water year 2017. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. The operational trial utilized real-time ESPs prepared by the CNRFC to forecast hydrologic conditions for Lake Mendocino and points downstream. Results of the EFO trial demonstrate a 6% increase in reservoir storage at the end of trial period (May 10) relative to observed conditions. Additionally, model results show no increase in flows above flood stage for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. Results of this investigation and other studies for Lake Mendocino demonstrate that the EFO alternative may be a viable solution to improve water supply reliability and downstream flood control, and further benefits may be possible with future improvement in hydrologic forecasting skill.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H33H2175M
- Keywords:
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- 1816 Estimation and forecasting;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1821 Floods;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1847 Modeling;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1860 Streamflow;
- HYDROLOGY