Development of New Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for a Changing Climate
Abstract
In the past few decades, extreme precipitation and storm events have increased in magnitude and frequency over much of the United States, resulting in disruptive social and economic impacts to highly populated urban areas and critical infrastructure. These extreme events can be characterized by intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves, which are critical for the planning and design of water sensitive urban infrastructure. The changing climate, and the non-stationarity of extreme storm events in particular, need to be considered and integrated into the next generation of IDF curves. In this study we (1) incorporated projections from a high resolution dynamically downscaled regional climate model, which facilitates better estimation of extreme precipitation through localized advection processes; (2) developed an improved bias correction method capable of identifying both general and upper tail biases of projected future precipitation from the model output; and (3) identified non-stationary changes in the climate by integrating both historical observations and corrected future climate projections. We will present the resulting IDF curves derived from our proposed methods and demonstrate the effects of next-generation IDF curves for various regions in the US.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.H22A..08J
- Keywords:
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- 1807 Climate impacts;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1817 Extreme events;
- HYDROLOGYDE: 1854 Precipitation;
- HYDROLOGY