Anthropogenic Roots of Drought: Investigating the Constraints of Agriculture and Hydro-Climatic Variables in the Semiarid Region of Maharashtra

Droughts have dire effects on agriculture and societies. Conversely, anthropogenic activities can both aggravate or ameliorate these effects. This study, for the first time looks beyond the impacts of drought and its climatic causes to identify anthropogenic drivers of drought and their manifestation in the semi-arid tract of Maharashtra.

Long term trend and seasonal analysis using standardized drought indices and anomalies have been carried out on disparate data sets of precipitation, soil moisture, groundwater, area under agriculture and yield- to characterize the drought drivers during study period 2002-2014.

There has been significant increase in the long term trend of satellite-derived (GRACE) groundwater index, decrease in soil moisture despite no significant change in precipitation while agriculture area has increased by 9%. By comparing satellite derived groundwater anomalies with in situ shallow monitoring groundwater anomalies, it is established that groundwater rejuvenation is occurring in the deeper, confined, highly heterogeneous basaltic aquifers, which are harder to locate by farmers. The early and later drought periods have distinct differences. In the earlier droughts, precipitation, soil moisture, groundwater and agricultural variables are in tandem with each other. In the later droughts, stress is specifically seen in soil moisture with low precipitation but improved groundwater conditions. It is found that agriculture patterns have witnessed a shift, with water-intensive cash crops steadily replacing indigenous food crops having low water requirements. The rapid increase in agriculture area and water intensive crops is in contradiction to drought situation.

The findings maintain that the current low irrigation potential (27%) generated and shift to water-intensive crops result in high soil moisture stress despite the evident presence of groundwater. While the management activities have gone a long way in successfully recharging the aquifers, in absence of effective policy guidelines to manage agricultural practices, sustain-ably tap groundwater, increase irrigation potential by promoting water-sharing through community bore-wells and shared farm ponds, the positive results may be offset by the non-sustainable human practices.