Climate-Driven Changes in Interannual Variability of Snowpack Amount and Timing: Interactive Data Visualizations for Understanding Complex Patterns
Abstract
Observations and projections of climate change impacts on snow in the western United States consistently indicate decreased snowpack magnitude and earlier onset of seasonal ablation. However, interannual variability of snowpack amount and melt timing may also change; this would have important consequences for ecosystem function and water resources operations. We evaluate changing variability of annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWEmax) and date of SWEmax (DOMS) across the western United States using modeled snowpack from the Variable Infiltration Capacity model forced with downscaled climate data for historic (1970-1999) and RCP 8.5 future climate scenarios (2050-2079). These changes are mapped using a combination of static and interactive techniques. Because the projected changes are spatially and temporally complex, we develop and demonstrate a visualization tool that allows for interactive investigation of changing snowpack variability. These visualizations demonstrate that the coefficient of variation of SWEmax increases consistently across the landscape with the greatest increases at warm, low-elevation range edges, largely due to decreasing means forced by a transition from snow to rain. In contrast, changes in SWEmax interquartile range (IQR) vary spatially, decreasing in relatively warm snow-to-rain transition areas in the lower elevation Cascades and Sierra Nevada and increasing in relatively cool, high-elevation regions, particularly the high elevation southern Sierra Nevada. The change in IQR of DOMS also varies spatially, generally increasing in snow-to-rain transition zones and decreasing in high elevation, cold zones. Our results demonstrate that changes in snowpack variability depend strongly on the statistic used and highlight the diverse challenges facing water resource management. Importantly, the visualizations developed in this study allow detailed examination of the complex spatial responses of snowpack to climatic changes and provide an invaluable tool for hypothesis-generation for water resources adaptation strategies.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.C33C..24M
- Keywords:
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- 0736 Snow;
- CRYOSPHEREDE: 0738 Ice;
- CRYOSPHERE