Do CMIP5 climate models agree on warming of the atmosphere with latitude and height?
Abstract
Current literature indicates a warmer climate will lead to an increase in equator to pole temperature gradients aloft, strengthening the jet stream and shifting it poleward. However, there has been key observational evidence from microwave sounding units and reanalysis that indicates the Arctic is not only warming at the surface but aloft as well. This would instead cause a decrease in the equator to pole temperature gradient aloft, possibly causing a weakening of the jet stream. To put this in context, we will examine the differences in zonal-mean warming and zonal-wind structures across many different RCP8.5 future and satellite era CMIP5 climate models. We will be looking at the latitude and depth of the atmosphere across the Northern Hemisphere. We will determine if the Arctic warms aloft more than the tropics in any of the models and if the jet stream shifts equatorward in those models. If so, this could change our perspective on how a warming climate affects atmospheric structure and circulation.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.A53N2719G
- Keywords:
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- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3319 General circulation;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 1620 Climate dynamics;
- GLOBAL CHANGEDE: 1630 Impacts of global change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE