Change in Extreme Arctic Cyclone Intensity under Arctic Warming Amplification using a Large Member Ensemble Model Experiment
Abstract
We use the d4pdf dataset, a 100-member ensemble AGCM experiment under the boundary condition of historical SST (HPB) and compared them to a 90-member 4K global warming experiment (HFB-4K) to investigate the special feature and seasonality of change in extreme cyclone intensity over the Arctic. Using 1-percentile SLP, P(1%) as an indicator of extreme cyclones, two main region of change is found. One is the Bering strait region in winter where the difference between HPB and HFB-4K is pronounced during autumn and lasts throughout the cold season. Another is the Arctic circle region where is difference is more emphasized during summer. EOF analysis reveals that the more extreme cyclone condition in the Barents strait is related to the northern shift in the Aleutian Low and a positive AO. Arctic cyclone intensity during summer is related to cyclogenesis along the Eurasian coast and more cyclones entering the Arctic via the northern Atlantic Ocean.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.A51I2268H
- Keywords:
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- 3305 Climate change and variability;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3339 Ocean/atmosphere interactions;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3364 Synoptic-scale meteorology;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 1621 Cryospheric change;
- GLOBAL CHANGE