Validation of a Basin-Scale Nature Run for Hurricane OSSEs
Abstract
A validated Nature Run is the foundation of a realistic Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) framework. For OSSEs aimed at hurricane prediction, a high-resolution regional Nature Run is required to capture small-scale features of tropical cyclone structure. Previous regional Nature Runs relied on nesting and hence had a relatively small area with data at high resolution. Embedded within NASA's 7-km GEOS-5 Nature Run, a Basin Scale Nature Run (BSNR) using the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model on the B grid (NMM-B) was created at NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML). This large fixed grid centered over the North Atlantic basin allows for the simulation of high-resolution data throughout the domain, with uniform 2-km horizontal resolution and 61 vertical levels. After validation of BSNR is complete, synthetic observations can be simulated to be used in AOML's newly developed advanced regional OSSE system. This presentation focuses on validating and evaluating a BSNR hurricane originating in the southern Gulf of Mexico and making landfall along the Alabama/Florida Gulf coast. Beginning with the synoptic-scale, environmental conditions are studied to understand how they may influence the evolution of this hurricane. This leads to an analysis of the tropical cyclone structure including its size, intensity, boundary layer, and precipitation distribution. Validation is performed through comparisons to composited structures of observed hurricanes.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2018
- Bibcode:
- 2018AGUFM.A13C..05B
- Keywords:
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- 3315 Data assimilation;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3336 Numerical approximations and analyses;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 3372 Tropical cyclones;
- ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSESDE: 0520 Data analysis: algorithms and implementation;
- COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS