M-dwarf exoplanet surface density distribution. A log-normal fit from 0.07 to 400 AU

Aims: We fit a log-normal function to the M-dwarf orbital surface density distribution of gas giant planets, over the mass range 1-10 times that of Jupiter, from 0.07 to 400 AU.
Methods: We used a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to explore the likelihoods of various parameter values consistent with point estimates of the data given our assumed functional form.
Results: This fit is consistent with radial velocity, microlensing, and direct-imaging observations, is well-motivated from theoretical and phenomenological points of view, and predicts results of future surveys. We present probability distributions for each parameter and a maximum likelihood estimate solution.
Conclusions: We suggest that this function makes more physical sense than other widely used functions, and we explore the implications of our results on the design of future exoplanet surveys.