Can the solar cycle be predicted ?

Because the solar magnetic activity cycle modulates the sun's radiative output and solar wind properties, as well as the frequency of all geoeffective solar eruptive phenomena, predicting its characteristics --amplitude, duration, timing of maxima and polarity reversals-- remains a cornerstone of space weather research. Secular variations on supra-cycle timescale are also now considered an important component of solar forcing in climate simulations. Working through specific examples, I will show that various classes of solar dynamo models have very different predictive potential, and consequently that the primary obstacle facing current prediction methods based on sch models is the identification of the precise inductive mechanisms powering the solar dynamo, and of the nonlinear feedback mechanism regulating cycle amplitude. The response of these various models to stochastic forcing, and its consequence for prediction, will also be addressed, again through specific modeling examples.