How the complexity of the soil model impacts seasonal prediction of European summer temperatures
Abstract
We investigate the impact of the new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill obtained for 2-meter air temperatures over Europe with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). A full-field assimilation experiment from 1981 to 2010 and seasonal hindcasts started on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM using the old bucket soil scheme and the new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find improved seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures with the 5-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme, and investigate the origin of these improvements. On the one hand, the indirect soil-moisture assimilation is more realistic causing a different behaviour of land-atmosphere coupling in the 5-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme. On the other hand, the prediction of the atmospheric blocking frequency is improved, reflecting more realistic persistence of large-scale weather patterns over Europe.
- Publication:
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EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- April 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017EGUGA..1915288B