Challenges in Specifying and Predicting Space Weather
Abstract
Significant progress has been made during the last decade with regard to understanding, specifying, and predicting space weather, but many challenges still remain. As far as space weather modeling is concerned, numerous approaches are being pursued, including those involving empirical, physics-based, data-driven, and data assimilation models, and all of the approaches have been useful to some degree. However, if there are sufficient measurements, the data assimilation (DA) modeling approach is expected to be the most reliable. Unfortunately, the use of different DA models to describe the same geophysical event could yield different results even if the same data sources are assimilated, because the different DA models are based on "different" background physics-based models, assimilation techniques, data error analyses, and spatial and temporal resolutions. In this study, we used our Multimodel Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) of DA models to elucidate the similarities and differences in the individual DA model reconstructions of the mid-low latitude ionosphere when the same data types are assimilated. Ensemble model averages were also obtained. Several geophysical cases were considered, including different solar, seasonal and magnetic activity conditions. For each case, the 3-dimensional ionospheric densities from the individual models were compared and used to produce ensemble averages for the Total Electron Content (TEC), peak electron density (NmF2) and height (hmF2), and topside and bottom-side scale heights. A simple average of the models was used in the ensemble averaging to determine if there was an improvement of the ensemble average over the individual models when compared to independent measurements. The results are interesting and depend on geophysical case and ionospheric parameter.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFMSA31A2565S
- Keywords:
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- 7924 Forecasting;
- SPACE WEATHER;
- 7934 Impacts on technological systems;
- SPACE WEATHER;
- 7959 Models;
- SPACE WEATHER;
- 7974 Solar effects;
- SPACE WEATHER