Solar Energetic Particle Event Risks for Future Human Missions within the Inner Heliosphere

As astronauts travel beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), space weather research will play a key role in determining risks from space radiation. Of interest are the rare, large solar energetic particle (SEP) events that can cause significant medical effects during flight. Historical SEP data were analyzed from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) program covering the time period of 1986 to 2016 for SEP events. The SEP event data were combined with a Monte Carlo approach to develop a risk model to determine maximum expected doses for missions within the inner heliosphere. Presented here are results from risk assessments for proposed Mars transits as compared to a geostationary Earth-bound mission. Overall, the greatest risk was for the return from Mars with a Venus swing-by, due to the additional transit length and decreased distance from the Sun as compared to traditional Hohmann transfers. The overall results do not indicate that the effects of SEP events alone would prohibit these missions based on current radiation limits alone, but the combination of doses from SEP events and galactic cosmic radiation may be significant, and should be considered in all phases of mission design.