A 3056-year tree-ring based annual precipitation reconstruction from southern Qaidam Basin, Qinghai, China

Past climate is desired for understanding the forcing of climatic changes, for evaluating present conditions in the long-term context of the past, and for the basis of projecting future climate scenarios. By using tree-ring data, temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and drought history have been reconstructed back to hundreds or even thousands of years. In China, many dendroclimatological studies have focused on west China, particularly in the environmental sensitive Tibetan Plateau. For example, several millennial-long climatic reconstructions for northeast and east Qaidam basin have been published, and got many new achievements. Whereas, there are few samples collected from the dry area in the south. In this study, we developed a new tree ring-width chronology (from 1403 BC to AD 2015) using samples from eight stands in the southeast of Qaidam basin near Nuomuhong. Response analysis showed significant positive correlations with monthly precipitation in July and September of the previous year, May and June of the current year. Statistically, the chronology was appropriate for reconstructing the annual precipitation of July-June from 1040 BC to AD 2015, and explains 45.5% of variance contained in the instrumental date for the calibration periods 1957-2015. In the past 3056 years of reconstruction, the precipitation has experienced 14 wetter periods and 13 drier ones, and the precipitation increased obviously in 20th century. Meanwhile, wavelet analysis shows that there are 2-3, 3-8 and 11 year cycles of variability, which may be associated with ENSO and solar activity. We expect that our reconstruction will improve the understanding of precipitation variation in millennial scale on the southern Qaidam basin.