Data-driven stochastic model for investigation of the mid-Pleistocene transition

In this work we use a data-driven stochastic model with external forcing for investigation of the mid-Pleistocene transition (MPT) which happened approximately one million years ago when the dominant periodicity of climate cycles changed from forty one thousand to one hundred thousand years in the absence of substantial change in orbital forcing. As an external forcing for the model we use the time series of insolation at four different latitudes [1] containing information about variation of the orbital parameters affecting the Earth's climate: eccentricity, obliquity, and climatic precession. We demonstrate good performance of our dynamical model in analysis of paleoclimate variability. In particular, we show that MPT can be explained as a response of slowly changing dynamical system to quasi-periodic orbital forcing signal. The dynamical mechanism underlying such a transition is investigated and discussed in the report. 1. Berger A. and Loutre M.F. (1991), Insolation values for the climate of the last 10 million years. Quaternary Sciences Review, Vol. 10, No. 4, pp. 297-317