A systematic investigation into b values prior to coming large earthquakes
Abstract
The Gutenberg-Richter law for frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes is now well established in seismology. The b value, the slope of the distribution, is supposed to reflect heterogeneity of seismogenic region (e.g. Mogi 1962) and development of interplate coupling in subduction zone (e.g. Nanjo et al., 2012; Tormann et al. 2015). In the laboratory as well as in the Earth's crust, the b value is known to be inversely dependent on differential stresses (Scholz 1968, 2015). In this context, the b value could serve as a stress meter to help locate asperities, the highly-stressed patches, in fault planes where large rupture energy is released (e.g. Schorlemmer & Wiemer 2005). However, it still remains uncertain whether the b values of events prior to coming large earthquakes are always low significantly. To clarify this issue, we conducted a systematic investigation into b values prior to large earthquakes in the Japanese Mainland. Since no physical definition of mainshock, foreshock, and aftershock is known, we simply investigated b values of the events with magnitudes larger than the lower-cutoff magnitude, Mc, prior to earthquakes equal to or larger than a threshold magnitude, Mth, where Mth>Mc. Schorlemmer et al. (2005) showed that the b value for different fault types differs significantly, which is supposed to reflect the feature that the fracture stress depends on fault types. Therefore, we classified fault motions into normal, strike-slip, and thrust types based on the mechanism solution of earthquakes, and computed b values of events associated with each fault motion separately. We found that the target events (M≥Mth) and the events that occurred prior to the target events both show a common systematic change in b: normal faulting events have the highest b values, thrust events the lowest and strike-slip events intermediate values. Moreover, we found that the b values for the prior events (M≥Mc) are significantly lower than the b values for the target events (M≥Mth), though their b values change somewhat depending on the choice of the parameter values to define the target events (M≥Mth) and the prior events (M≥Mc). This finding indicates that the b value could be used as an effective index for foreseeing occurrence of large earthquakes, if the parameter values are well-tuned.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFMMR42A..02N
- Keywords:
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- 5104 Fracture and flow;
- PHYSICAL PROPERTIES OF ROCKS;
- 7209 Earthquake dynamics;
- SEISMOLOGY;
- 8010 Fractures and faults;
- STRUCTURAL GEOLOGY;
- 8163 Rheology and friction of fault zones;
- TECTONOPHYSICS