Time series multivariate analysis of HF backscatter; a predictive tool for space weather capabilities

Studies have shown clear evidence for the adverse induced impact of the conditions on the Sun, the solar wind, the magnetosphere, ionosphere and thermosphere on the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems. The use of high frequency (HF) radar backscatter as a proxy for determining and understanding the conditions in the magnetosphere and ionosphere through the monitoring of magnetospheric plasma and ionospheric irregularities are on the increase. There is a need to nowcast, forecast and predict the conditions in the magnetosphere and ionosphere. Such prediction information will help on the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground based technological systems. In this work, we propose the use of time series multivariate models of HF backscatter as predictive tool for space weather capabilities.