Quantify the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Drivers of Changes in Forest and Agricultural Land in South and Southeast Asia

Due to the rapid socioeconomic development and biophysical factors, South and Southeast Asia (SSEA) has become a hotspot region of land use and land cover changes (LULCCs) in past few decades. Uncovering the drivers of LULCC is crucial for improving the understanding of LULCC processes. Due to the differences from spatiotemporal scales, methods and data sources in previous studies, the quantitative relationships between the LULCC activities and biophysical and socioeconomic drivers at the regional scale of SSEA have not been established. Here we present a comprehensive estimation of the biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of the major LULCC activities in SSEA: changes in forest and agricultural land. We used the Climate Change Initiative land cover data developed by European Space Agency to reveal the dynamics of forest and agricultural land from 1992 to 2015. Then we synthesized 200 publications about LULCC drivers at different spatial scales in SSEA to identify the major drivers of these LULCC activities. Corresponding representative variables of the major drivers were collected. The geographically weighted regression was employed to assess the spatiotemporally heterogeneous drivers of LULCC. Moreover, we validated our results with some national level case studies in SSEA. The results showed that both biophysical conditions such as terrain, soil, and climate, and socioeconomic factors such as migration, poverty, and economy played important roles in driving the changes of forest and agricultural land. The major drivers varied in different locations and periods. Our study integrated the bottom-up knowledge from local scale case studies with the top-down estimation of LULCC drivers, therefore generated more accurate and credible results. The identified biophysical and socioeconomic components could be used to improve the LULCC modelling and projection.