The Inconvenient Truth of Fresh Sediment: Insights from a New Method for Quantifying Subsidence in the Mississippi Delta

Knowing the rates and drivers of subsidence in deltas is essential to coastal management. There is a growing consensus that relatively shallow processes such as compaction and artificial drainage are primary contributors to subsidence, although deeper processes such as faulting may be locally important. Here we present a new method to quantify subsidence of a 6000 km2 relict bayhead delta of the Mississippi Delta, using the depth of the mouthbar-overbank stratigraphic boundary that formed near the low tide level in combination with OSL chronology. The contributions of isostatic processes are removed by subtracting a relative sea-level rise term previously obtained from basal peat. We find that displacement rates of the boundary, averaged over 750 to 1500 years, are on the order of a few mm/yr. Cumulative displacement is strongly correlated to overburden thickness, decreases coastward coincident with thinning of the bayhead delta deposit, and appears unrelated to the thickness of underlying Holocene strata or the occurrence of previously mapped faults. This supports compaction of shallow strata as a dominant driver of subsidence in the Mississippi Delta. We find that at least 50% of elevation gained through overbank deposition is ultimately lost to subsidence, significantly greater than the 35% loss previously estimated for inland localities underlain by peat. Our results demonstrate that bayhead deltas are especially vulnerable to subsidence. This finding has major relevance to coastal restoration in the Mississippi Delta through engineered river-sediment diversions. While inactive regions of the delta may be fairly stable if not perturbed by humans, the introduction of fresh sediment to the delta plain will inevitably accelerate subsidence. Values obtained with our method will be applied to a delta growth model that predicts the land-building potential of river-sediment diversions discharging into open bays under realistic scenarios of load-driven subsidence.