Volcanic ash dosage calculator: A proof-of-concept tool to support aviation stakeholders during ash events
Abstract
The volcanic ash clouds produced by Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull in April/May 2010 resulted in `no fly zones' which paralysed European aircraft activity and cost the airline industry an estimated £1.1 billion. In response to the crisis, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), in collaboration with Rolls Royce, produced the `safe-to-fly' chart. As ash concentrations are the primary output of dispersion model forecasts, the chart was designed to illustrate how engine damage progresses as a function of ash concentration. Concentration thresholds were subsequently derived based on previous ash encounters. Research scientists and aircraft manufactures have since recognised the importance of volcanic ash dosages; the accumulated concentration over time. Dosages are an improvement to concentrations as they can be used to identify pernicious situations where ash concentrations are acceptably low but the exposure time is long enough to cause damage to aircraft engines. Here we present a proof-of-concept volcanic ash dosage calculator; an innovative, web-based research tool, developed in close collaboration with operators and regulators, which utilises interactive data visualisation to communicate the uncertainty inherent in dispersion model simulations and subsequent dosage calculations. To calculate dosages, we use NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment) to simulate several Icelandic eruption scenarios, which result in tephra dispersal across the North Atlantic, UK and Europe. Ash encounters are simulated based on flight-optimal routes derived from aircraft routing software. Key outputs of the calculator include: the along-flight dosage, exposure time and peak concentration. The design of the tool allows users to explore the key areas of uncertainty in the dosage calculation and to visualise how this changes as the planned flight path is varied. We expect that this research will result in better informed decisions from key stakeholders during volcanic ash events through a deeper understanding of the associated uncertainties in dosage calculations.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFM.V12C..01D
- Keywords:
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- 0370 Volcanic effects;
- ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE;
- 8455 Tephrochronology;
- VOLCANOLOGY;
- 8488 Volcanic hazards and risks;
- VOLCANOLOGY