Imaging Cascadia coupling: optimal design for an offshore seafloor geodetic network
Abstract
The Cascadia subduction zone in the Pacific Northwest of the United States is known to produce MW≈9.2 earthquakes, and accompanying tsunamis every 600 years. An outstanding question in this region (as in most offshore subduction zones) is the degree to which the megathrust is locked (i.e., the coupling rate), and whether the locked zone extends to the trench, where onshore geodetic measurements cannot uniquely resolve strain accumulation. Seafloor geodetic techniques, such as acoustic ranging combined with GNSS positioning, are capable of providing unique observations of strain accumulation near the offshore trench of subduction zones. These observations may be used to constrain megathrust coupling rate and spatial distribution, and ultimately forecast the potential size and rupture pattern of a future subduction zone earthquake, with resolution beyond the capability of onshore observations alone. However, the high cost of seafloor geodesy limits the number of stations that may be deployed and monitored. Therefore, it is essential that deployed stations be positioned in such a way to provide the most informative data for resolving subduction zone coupling. We identify optimal seafloor observation locations by minimizing the Shannon Information Entropy of potential geodetic observation locations, given the current onshore geodetic network. Because coupling rate on the Cascadia megathrust depends on the relative convergence rate between the Juan de Fuca and North American plates, the most valuable location for a single seafloor geodetic station is west of the Juan de Fuca trench, on the Juan de Fuca plate itself. Subsequent optimal locations are also identified offshore, on the hanging wall near the trench. This approach provides a quantitative assessment of the value of seafloor observations: a single offshore observation provides 30 times the information gain of an additional onshore observation, and adding many (>50) onshore observations cannot provide the information gain of a single offshore observation.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2017
- Bibcode:
- 2017AGUFM.T43F..01E
- Keywords:
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- 1209 Tectonic deformation;
- GEODESY AND GRAVITY;
- 3006 Marine electromagnetics;
- MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS;
- 3050 Ocean observatories and experiments;
- MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS;
- 8170 Subduction zone processes;
- TECTONOPHYSICS