Numerical study of the effect of earth tides on recurring short-term slow slip events

Short-term slow slip events (SSEs) in the Nankai region are affected by earth tides (e.g., Nakata et al., 2008; Ide and Tanaka, 2014; Yabe et al., 2015). The effect of tidal stress on the SSEs is also examined numerically (e.g., Hawthorne and Rubin, 2013). In our previous study (Matsuzawa et al., 2017, JpGU-AGU), we numerically simulated SSEs in the Shikoku region, and reported that tidal stress makes the variance of recurrence intervals of SSEs smaller in relatively isolated SSE regions. However, the reason of such stable recurrence was not clear. In this study, we examine the tidal effect on short-term SSEs based on a flat plate and a realistic plate model (e.g., Matsuzawa et al., 2013, GRL). We adopt a rate- and state-dependent friction law (RS-law) with cutoff velocities as in our previous studies (Matsuzawa et al., 2013). We assume that (a-b) value in the RS-law is negative within the short-term SSE region, and positive outside the region. In a flat plate model, the short-term SSE region is a circular patch with the radius of 6 km. In a realistic plate model, the short-term SSE region is based on the actual distribution of low-frequency tremor. Low effective normal stress is assumed at the depth of SSEs. Calculating stress change by earth tides as in Yabe et al., (2015), we examine the stress perturbation by two different earth tides with the period of semidiurnal (M2) and fortnight (Mf) tide in this study. In the result of a flat plate case, amplitude of SSEs becomes smaller just after the slip at whole simulated area. Recurring SSEs become clear again within one year in the case with tides (M2 or Mf), while the recurrence becomes clear after seven years in the case without tides. Interestingly, the effect of the Mf tide is similar to the case with the M2 tide, even though the amplitude of the Mf tide (0.01 kPa) is two-order smaller than that of the M2 tide. In the realistic plate model of Shikoku, clear recurrence of short-term SSEs is found earlier than the case without tides, after the occurrence of long-term SSEs. These results suggest that stress perturbation by earth tides makes SSEs more episodic even in the situation that the loading in the surrounding area tends to cause temporal stable sliding.