Spatially varying stress state in the central U.S. from joint inversion of focal mechanism and maximum horizontal stress data

The Midcontinental United States continues to experience anomalously high rates of seismicity and generate large earthquakes despite its location in the cratonic interior, far from any plate boundary. There is renewed interest in Midcontinent seismicity with the concern that fluid injection within the Illinois basin could induce seismicity. In order to better understand the seismic hazard and inform studies of risk mitigation, we present an assessment of the contemporary crustal stress state in the Illinois basin and surrounding region, looking specifically at how the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress varies throughout the region. This information will help identify which faults are critically stressed and therefore most likely to fail under increased pore pressures. We conduct a Bayesian stress inversion of focal mechanism solutions and maximum horizontal stress orientations from borehole breakout, core fracture, overcoring, hydraulic fracture, and strain gauge measurements for maximum horizontal compressive stress orientations across the Midcontinent region and produce a map of expected faulting styles. Because distinguishing the slipping fault plane from the auxiliary nodal plane is ambiguous for focal mechanisms, the choice of the fault plane and associated slip vector to use in the inversion is important in the estimation of the stress tensor. The stress inversion provides an objective means to estimate nonlinear parameters including the spatial smoothing parameter, unknown data uncertainties, as well as the selection of focal mechanism nodal planes. We find a systematic rotation of the maximum horizontal stress orientation (SHmax) across a 1000 km width of the Midcontinent. We find that SHmax rotates from N60E to E/W orientation across the southern Illinois basin and returns to N60E in the western Appalachian basin. The stress regime is largely consistent with strike-slip faulting with pockets of a reverse-faulting stress regime near the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones.